In 2022, the number of automobiles in China reached 319 million, marking a threefold increase from the 2011 figure of 109 million. Zhang Jun, writing in “Sixth Tone,” offers insight into the primary reason behind this surge in car ownership.
Under China’s old economic system, particularly in large industrial cities, urbanites often worked at state-owned production units with adjacent housing. Planning for children to join these units upon graduation was common, shaping a lifestyle where the entire household revolved around the employment unit within a restricted space. However, the 1990s saw the dismantling of this work unit-oriented way of life. State-allocated housing was replaced by private home ownership, colleagues and friends moved to different neighborhoods, and cultural facilities shifted to shopping malls. Consequently, with these changes, the need for convenient transportation solutions emerged. Cars became a practical answer, and in some cases, a prerequisite, for families.
China responded to this change in its social structure in an amazing way. “It was only in the year 2000 that ‘helping households acquire cars’ was included in China’s 10th Five Year Plan. Domestic car sales skyrocketed.” “Just five years ago China shipped only a quarter as many cars as Japan, then the world’s biggest exporter. But the Chinese claim to have exported over 5 million cars in 2023, exceeding the Japanese total. China’s biggest carmaker, BYD, sold half a million electric vehicles (EVs) in the fourth quarter, leaving Tesla in the dust. Chinese EVs are so cheap that the only constraint on their export today is the scarcity of vessels for shipping overseas. As the world decarbonises, demand will rise further. By 2030 China could double its share of the global market to a third, ending the dominance of the West’s national champions, especially in Europe” (The Economist).
There are two changes taking place. Firstly, although China has long been the world's biggest auto market and production center, the key was that the growth was driven by foreign carmakers in China (Volkswagen, BMW, Ford etc). But now “domestic brands embraced electrical vehicles and hybrids as the state bankrolled local manufacturers and subsidised sales.”
Secondly, there is a change from the domestic market to the overseas market. “China’s makers of such vehicles saw a rise in overseas shipments last year and they are planning more for this year since China’s domestic market for EVs has slowed, causing manufacturers to return to the overseas markets. For example, China’s BYD saw overseas sales jump almost five times to 242,000 in 2023.”
Another factor is “demand surging in Russia. Chinese carmakers seized the void left in the country by the departure of Western carmakers following the war in Ukraine, selling at least five times as many vehicles there in 2023 than in 2022. Chinese carmaker Chery became the top car exporter last year thanks to a boom in sales to Russians, selling more than 900,000 cars overseas in total.”
How to pray about this:
• Pray for wisdom for Chinese, Japanese and Western governments in dealing with issues like China state subsidies of domestic car companies.
• Pray for Western nations to follow China’s substantial turning to EVs rather than petrol (gas) powered vehicles.
• Pray for Chinese citizens to see beyond the rush to modernisation, to an eternity where cars do not exist!
